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Following the Heat's resilient effort in their 111-108 win over the Nuggets in Game 2, the 2023 NBA Finals shifts to South Beach for Game 3 on Wednesday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Miami's come-from-behind victory marked Denver's first home playoff loss in 10 tries this postseason, while the Heat notched their fourth win in the 2023 NBA Playoffs when trailing by eight-plus points entering the fourth quarter.
After shooting 33.3 percent from behind the arc (13-of-39) and totaling two free-throw attempts in Game 1, the Heat ended Game 2 sinking 48.6 percent of their triples (17-of-35) and making 18-of-20 free throws. Jimmy Butler (21 points, seven-of-19 shooting) was more efficient as a scorer after his 13-point showing in Game 1, but it was the production from Miami's other unsung heroes — Gabe Vincent (23 points), Bam Adebayo (21), Max Strus (14), and Duncan Robinson (10) — who helped stun the Ball Arena crowd.
Denver ended Game 2 with a superior shooting percentage (52 percent), but the Nuggets' defensive intensity wasn't at the level needed to win an NBA Finals game. The Nuggets posted their third-worst defensive rating in the playoffs (129.1), allowing too many wide-open shot attempts for a Heat offense that will gladly take advantage of those defensive lapses.
As Nuggets' coach Michael Malone said postgame, "Miami came in here and outworked us." That's been an oh-so-common theme for the Heat's opposition during their historic Finals run. Of course, Malone has the right to criticize his guys for getting outworked, but Miami's ability to thrive in the face of adversity and grind opponents down over 48 minutes deserves its kudos, too.
After Denver's stress-free 11-point victory in Game 1, the Nuggets series price ballooned from -400 up to -700, only to drop to -275 entering Game 3. At its peak, Denver's -700 price tag pegged it with an implied probability of 87.5 percent to win its first-ever NBA Championship, but now its series odds imply a 73.33-percent chance of winning it all.
The Nuggets are short -2.5-point road favorites in Game 3, but now this best-of-seven has a real shot at approaching seven games. Miami's decision to start Kevin Love over Caleb Martin while letting Butler defend Jamal Murray helped slow Denver's offense down just enough to steal Game 2. Nikola Jokic (41 points, 16-of-28 shooting) still got his, but Murray totaled just 18 points after going for 26 in Game 1.
Denver boasted the league's second-lowest opponent three-point shooting percentage in the regular season, but that was the regular season. Strus and Robinson shot a combined six-of-13 from distance, with Vincent continuing to be water from deep (four-of-six).
Will we see a more connected perimeter defense from Denver, holding Miami to a less efficient three-point shooting night? Denver did get some good fortune in Game 1 with Miami missing several good looks, but those shots connected in Game 2.
Adding to the perplexity that is the 2022-23 Miami Heat, in 12 road games this postseason, the Heat are shooting 40.3 percent from behind the arc but have canned just 37.3 percent of their threes in eight games inside the Kaseya Center. If you think the Heat continue to light it up from deep, a wager on the Heat moneyline (+115) is where you should look. Conversely, if you think the Nuggets come out with more energy and improve their perimeter defense, then Denver (-2.5) has a good shot to take a 2-1 series lead.
Finding bettable edges on sides and totals in the NBA Finals is hard to come by, and while we wish we could be more confident in taking one side over the other, we're simply not.
For the sake of making a prediction, we'll side with Michael Malone's crew shoring up their defensive lapses, taking a 2-1 series lead in a lower-scoring contest. Both teams have shot at efficient clips this series, but the pace is too slow to warrant a bet on the OVER.
Prediction: Nuggets 109, Heat 105. The Nuggets (-2.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (214.5).
Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3: Jimmy Butler OVER 6.5 assists
Butler ended Game 2 leading all players with an assist percentage of 39.1 percent, totaling nine assists. At times in this series, it's looked as if he's playing hot potato with the ball on offense, wanting to find the open man to force Denver into defensive rotations. He's gone OVER 6.5 assists in both games this series, and we're thinking that trend holds up in Game 3.
Other Heat-Nuggets Game 3 SuperDraft props we like: Michael Porter Jr. UNDER 14.5 points, Max Strus OVER 9.5 points, Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 points