Baseball Padres vs. Phillies Game 3 Betting: Will Musgrove fire the Friars into a series lead in Philly?

[James]

After the Philadelphia Phillies won Game 1 of the NLCS behind stellar pitching, the San Diego Padres struck back in Game 2 behind a big night at the plate. Will pitching dominate in tonight’s Game 3 in Philadelphia, or will the bats lead the way to victory again?
As the series shifts to Citizens Bank Park for the next three games, the Padres are slight favorites after the teams split the first two games at Petco Park.

2022 National League Championship Series Odds​

Odds are via FanDuel.

• San Diego Padres to win the NLCS – 115
• Philadelphia Phillies to win the NLCS -105

Tonight’s game will be huge for the outcome of the series. If the Phillies take a 2-1 lead, then they would be in position to clinch at home with wins in Games 4 and 5. But if the Padres win, they will ensure that the series will, at the very least, return to San Diego for a Game 6 and remove the pressure that would come from being down 2-1 on the road.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Information and Betting Odds – NLCS Game 3​

Matchup Information​

• Matchup: #5 San Diego Padres (1-1) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (1-1)
• Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
• Date: Friday, October 21, 2022
• Game Time: 7:37 p.m. Eastern Time
• How to Watch Padres vs. Phillies Game 3: FS1

Padres vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup​

• San Diego: RHP Joe Musgrove (2022 regular season: 30 starts, 10-7, 2.93 ERA – 1-0, 1.38 ERA in two starts in the postseason)
• Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Ranger Suarez (2022: 29 starts, 10-7, 3.65 ERA – 0-0, 2.70 ERA in one start in the postseason)

Padres vs. Phillies Odds​

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline​

• San Diego Padres -120
• Philadelphia Phillies +102

Over/Under​

• Over 7.5 (-104)
• Under 7.5 (-118)

Run Line​

• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+142)
• Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-172)

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bets​

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction: San Diego to win
Padres vs. Phillies Best Bets: San Diego ML (Best Value: -115 at BetMGM) & San Diego team total over (Best Value: over 3.5 @ -120 at BetMGM & BetRivers)
Tonight’s matchup is a favorable one for San Diego’s lineup, according to regular season splits.

Notable Regular Season Batting Splits for the San Diego Padres​

Home & Away​

• Home: .231 batting average, 3.72 runs per game
• Away: .251 batting average, 4.99 runs per game

vs. RHP & LHP​

• vs. RHP (overall): .239 BA
• vs. LHP (overall): .245 BA
• In games started by RHP: .237 BA, 4.37 runs per game
• In games started by LHP: .250 BA, 4.31 runs per game

Day & Night​

• Day Games: .237 BA, 4.14 runs per game
• Night Games: .243 BA, 4.48 runs per game

The only number that doesn’t come out better is the runs per game in games started by LHP, but I’m looking for the Padres to have a productive game against Suarez, who is making his first appearance since starting Game 1 of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves.
In that game, Suarez gave up three hits and five walks in 3.1 innings, but he allowed only one run because the Braves were wasteful, failing to score with the bases loaded in both the first and the third.
In the regular season, Suarez was 4-4 with a 4.27 ERA at home and gave up three or more runs in 10 of 13 home starts, and opposing teams scored four or more runs against the Phillies 10 times in the 13 games he started at home.
Musgrove has been excellent in his two postseason starts, helping the Padres pick up series-clinching wins over the Mets and Dodgers.
Overall, over his last six starts, Musgrove has a 0.77 ERA. In that stretch, he has allowed three runs, 22 hits, and 12 walks and struck out 40 in 35 innings.
Look for Musgrove’s good run to continue and for the bats to back him with some solid support in a pivotal Game 3 win for the Padres.