- 1,277
- 86
- 48
Opening line: Bills -11; Over/Under 43.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Bills are 13-point home favorites in Caesars' NFL Super Wild Card odds market. Buffalo opened -11 late Sunday night and actually backed up to -9.5 by Tuesday afternoon and -9 early Wednesday.
But once Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was confirmed out Wednesday, the line shot straight to Bills -12.5, then went to -13. Buffalo is seeing 82% of spread tickets, but a more modest 60% of spread money so far.
"When the line originally came down, maybe people thought there was value if Tua or [Teddy] Bridgewater came back and were hoping one of them was the starter,” Caesars' Adam Pullen said. “People are going to speculate, and you have to be careful early in the week when nobody really knows what’s happening. If Bridgewater is named the starter, even if he’s not 100%, this line is coming down. With Skylar Thompson, it’s a different story. It’s a difficult task to go into Buffalo with a quarterback who’s untested. But 13 is a lot of points for a playoff game. Crazy things have happened before in the playoffs.”
Caesars opened the total at 44.5, dipped to 43.5 by late Monday morning, then climbed as high as 46.5 early Wednesday. But with Tagovailoa out, the total fell to 43.5 by Wednesday afternoon. Splits aren't available tonight.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: With today's news that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion protocol) won't play, the Bills shot all the way to -13 at TwinSpires Sportsbook. On Sunday, Buffalo opened -11 and moved to -11.5 in short order.
The Bills are seeing 70% of early spread tickets and 84% of early spread dollars.
"Lopsided Bills money since we opened. It's our biggest liability of the weekend," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.
The total has been fairly a fairly steady 43.5 at TwinSpires, with 55% of tickets on the Under/56% of money on the Over.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Buffalo capped an emotional week with a big win over New England to nab the AFC's No. 2 seed. Nyheim Hines returned the opening kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown, but the Bills got all they could handle from the Patriots throughout the game.
In fact, Buffalo needed a second Hines-to-the-house return – this time 101 yards in the third quarter – to go up 21-17 and didn't relinquish the lead from there. The Bills went on to a 35-23 victory laying 8 points at home.
Much like Baltimore, Miami has serious QB issues. Tua Tagovailoa has been in concussion protocol since a Christmas Day home loss to Green Bay, part of a five-game SU slide that nearly ended the Dolphins' season. In Week 18, Miami didn't have second-stringer Teddy Bridgewater, either, due to a finger injury.
So rookie Skylar Thompson got the nod, and Miami (9-8 SU and ATS) pulled out an ugly 11-6 victory giving 4 points at home against the New York Jets. That secured the No. 7 seed, and for what it's worth, the Dolphins covered when the Jets' desperation final play resulted in a safety.
The SuperBook installed Buffalo as double-digit chalk on its NFL Wild Card odds board.
"We took some action on the Bills, but are still at the opener," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said of staying at Buffalo -11. "Tua is questionable, but this line definitely leans more toward him not playing. Some sharp money on Over moved us up to 44."
With Miami and Buffalo both in the AFC East, there have already been two meetings this season. In Week 3, Miami won 21-19 catching 4.5 points at home. And in a Week 15 screamer of a Saturday night game, Tagovailoa and Josh Allen traded blows, with the Bills coming out on top 32-29.
However, Miami again cashed as a 7-point road pup.