- 1,210
- 11
- 38
In this year’s Australian Open, Nadal suffered a second-round upset loss to American Mackenzie McDonald while hampered with a left hip injury. That hip injury has kept Nadal out of action since, and it remains to be seen if he will be able to return for Wimbledon next month.
But even with Nadal not taking part, there’s plenty to look forward to as the top tennis players in the world tussle on the Paris clay.
Before we take a look at the tournament and offer up our picks, let’s take a look at the men’s and women’s singles odds.
French Open 2023 Winner Odds
Men’s Singles
- Carlos Alcaraz +145
- Novak Djokovic +200
- Holger Rune +1000
- Daniil Medvedev +1100
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +1300
- Jannik Sinner +1600
- Casper Ruud +2400
- Alexander Zverev +3700
- Andrey Rublev +4200
- Dominic Thiem +8500
- Felix Auger Aliassime +10000
- Lorenzo Musetti +10000
Alcaraz, the reigning US Open champion and the current world number one, missed the Australian Open due to a hamstring injury suffered in practice. But since returning to action, he has won three tournaments, including Masters 1000 titles at Indian Wells (hard court) and Madrid (clay).
Djokovic, meanwhile, will be looking to break his tie with Nadal and claim his 23rd Grand Slam men’s singles title.
Djokovic pulled even with Nadal by winning this year’s Australian Open but hasn’t advanced past the semifinals in four tournament appearances since.
Women’s Singles
- Iga Swiatek -135
- Aryna Sabalenka +650
- Elena Rybakina +650
- Barbora Krejcikova +2000
- Paula Badosa +2200
- Jelena Ostapenko +3000
- Coco Gauff +3000
- Ons Jabeur +3100
- Marketa Vondrousova +3400
- Jessica Pegula +3600
- Maria Sakkari +3700
- Veronika Kudermetova +4800
That said, Sabalenka appears to have significantly closed the gap between herself and Swiatek. She finally got over the Grand Slam hump earlier this year when she won the Australian Open, and she beat Swiatek in the Madrid final earlier this month.
French Open 2023 Prediction and Picks
Men’s Singles
Since making his Roland Garros debut in 2005, the only years that Nadal has not won the title are 2009 (lost in the fourth round to Robin Soderling), 2015 (lost to Djokovic in the quarters), 2016 (withdrew prior to the third round due to a wrist injury), and 2021 (lost to Djokovic in the semifinals).
In each of those years, the title was won by someone who was already a Grand Slam champion: Roger Federer in 2009, Stan Wawrinka in 2015, and Djokovic in 2016 and 2021.
I’m not looking beyond previous Grand Slam champions this year, either.
Alcaraz is the future, but he is also very much the present as well. He might have to go through Djokovic to do it, but he owns a win in their only head-to-head meeting to date, a three-set win in the semifinals of the Madrid Open last year.
Mental fortitude is as much a key to beating Djokovic as anything else, and Alcaraz is one of the few players in the French Open men’s singles field that I feel have the mental fortitude to overcome Djokovic on this stage.
One of the others is Medvedev, who is my pick to win the tournament. Medvedev lost in the fourth round to Marin Cilic last year, but he was only in his second tournament back after a hernia procedure shelved him for most of the clay court season.
This year, Medvedev is healthy, and he will go into the French Open with a title in the Rome Masters to his name. Clay isn’t his best surface, but he has gradually become stronger on it, to the point where he should be considered one of the favorites on merit and potential to win and not just because he is one of the highest-ranked players in the world.
If I am making a pick based on betting value and likelihood to win the tournament, Medvedev is the best option in my view.
Women’s Singles
No one has gone back-to-back as the French Open women’s singles champion since Justine Henin won three titles in a row from 2005 to 2007.
Even reaching the final in consecutive years has been a tough ask, with the last player to do so being Simona Halep, who lost to Jelena Ostapenko in the 2017 final then defeated Sloane Stephens to make her Grand Slam breakthrough the following year.
So, recent history certainly isn’t on Swiatek’s side.
However, just like I am not looking beyond Grand Slam champions for the men’s singles title, I’m not looking beyond Grand Slam champions for the women’s singles title either.
Were Swiatek 100% healthy, she would be my pick without any reservations. Even with Sabalenka having gotten over the Grand Slam hump and owning a win over Swiatek in their most recent meeting (a three-set win in the Madrid final earlier this month), a healthy Swiatek still has the edge for me.
But she is currently dealing with a thigh injury that caused her to retire from the quarterfinals of the Italian Open last week. The retirement was said to be precautionary, but it is a concern nonetheless, especially with a tournament that has a reputation for being wide open.
Also, I don’t particularly love betting on such short odds, unless it’s a situation like last year when Swiatek was in the middle of her 37-match winning streak and looked almost untouchable on clay.
All that said, I’m still rolling with Swiatek. She is saying all the right things about being fit for the French Open, and having the better part of two weeks to rest and recover between her retirement in Rome and her opening match at Roland Garros should make a difference.