- 1,258
- 86
- 48
Opening line: Cowboys -3.5; Over/Under 44.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Dallas landed on Caesars' NFL Wild Card odds board at -3 (-105) late Sunday night and has since toggled between -3 and -2.5 multiple times, at various juice. The Cowboys are currently -2.5 flat, with point-spread tickets and money both almost dead even. Tickets lean slightly to Dallas, while money slightly favors Tampa Bay.
However, bettors like the Bucs on the moneyline, with ticket count 4/1-plus and money 2/1 on Tampa.
“I’m honestly not sure which way the betting will go on Monday night,” Pullen said. “I’m not anticipating a huge decision either way. I think Dallas is the better team, but you have the [Tom] Brady factor, and a lot of people saw what they didn’t want to see out of Dallas last week [against the Commanders]. Even though his numbers are down and he’s dealing with stuff off the field, Brady is going to get the benefit of the doubt from a lot of bettors.
"People know the Buccaneers had a losing record, but they’ll be intrigued with Brady as a home underdog.”
The total rose from 44.5 to 45.5 Monday morning at Caesars, and it hasn't moved since. That's even after the book took a $110,000 bet on Under 45.5. Thanks to that large bet, the Under is attracting 91% of money, but a much more modest 55% of tickets.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: It wasn't pretty by a long shot, but the Bucs – among the preseason favorites in the Super Bowl odds market – won the NFC South and the No. 4 playoff seed. Tampa Bay (8-9 SU, 4-12-1 ATS) beat Carolina in Week 17 to clinch the division.
That being the case, the Buccaneers had no reason to risk their starters in Week 18 at Atlanta. Tampa lost 30-17 as a 6-point underdog, cementing its status as the NFL's worst spread-covering outfit this season.
Fifth-seeded Dallas (12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) ended its regular season with a thud at Washington. The Cowboys entered Week 18 on a 6-1 SU run that had them in the running for the NFC's top seed. But Dak Prescott and Co. fell into a 13-0 hole and never climbed out, losing 26-6 as 7.5-point favorites.
At The SuperBook, there's a strong early opinion on this matchup.
"This game has been one-way traffic on the Bucs plus the points, from both sharps and the public. We are down to Tampa Bay +3 (-120), and I think we will continue to write money on the Bucs," said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook. "Come Monday night I would be surprised if we're not rooting for Dallas to win and cover. Some smaller bets on the Over, as well, but nothing of note yet."
The Cowboys and Bucs met in Week 1, with a stingy defense leading Tampa to a 19-3 road win as a 2.5-point home chalk.