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The Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies play the second game of their three-game weekend series on Saturday night at Coors Field, and the Angels are looking to even the series after losing on Friday night.
Griffin Canning (5-2, 4.40 ERA) is on the mound for the Angels against Rockies veteran Chase Anderson (0-1, 4.12 ERA).
The total in this game is set at a whopping 12.5, but is there value in fading the noise and taking the under?
Here’s my best bet as well as the odds for Saturday’s contest:
Angels vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
It’s not a fun bet, but I think the UNDER is the play on Saturday night.The Rockies, despite playing at Coors Field, are one of the best UNDER teams in Major League Baseball this season, going 45-33 through their first 78 games.
These two starters haven’t been great this season, but expecting there to be 13 or more runs in this game is a lot, especially since the Angels are sixth in MLB in bullpen ERA.
While Canning’s ERA is a bit shaky, he’s only allowed more than three earned runs in two of his 11 starts this season.
The Angels right-hander ranks in the 48th percentile in expected ERA this season, showing he’s been completely average – which is fine – in 2023.
As for Anderson, he’s actually been great at limiting hard contact, which is essential to win at Coors Field. He ranks in the 91st percentile in hard hit percentage and 87th percentile in average exit velocity against in 2023.
I think this pitching matchup is better than oddsmakers are expecting, so I’ll gladly take the UNDER with a sky high total.